May 31:
- President Biden announced a three-phase “plan” to end the war in Gaza supposedly initially advanced by the Israeli government, which in turn said it remained committed to its original war aims of destroying Hamas.
- In South Africa’s elections, the ANC appears set to share power after a significant fall-off in its support.
- It has been a day of digesting the Trump verdict at home and abroad. As the campaign claimed record fundraising over the past 24 hours, what passes for GOP “leadership” – including potential VP picks – rallied around their prospective candidate.
Elsewhere, several news networks cut away from the former President’s rambling and vindictive presser at Trump Tower. The convicted former president took time to wave to all his supporters.
***
May 30:
- The verdict is in.
Former President Donald Trump was convicted on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to conceal hush money payments made during the 2016 election, making him the first US president to be convicted of a crime.
***
May 29:
- The jury begins deliberations in Donald Trump’s “hush money” trial, and it seems his defense team has a specific strategic goal.
- South Africa goes to the polls today in what is expected to be the most pivotal general election since the end of apartheid.
- Josh Gibson is now officially baseball’s all-time batting leader.
“MLB announces a newly integrated statistical database including records from Negro Leagues that operated from 1920 to 1948. The formal acceptance of the data comes three-and-a-half years after MLB officially recognized the Negro Leagues as major leagues in December 2020.”
***
May 28:
As Israeli tanks push further into Rafah, the UN Security Council was to meet in an emergency session after an attack on a refugee camp killed more than 40 people. Separately, three European countries – Ireland, Spain and Norway – formally recognised a Palestinian state.
- Closing arguments finished in Donald Trump’s “hush money” trial.
- President Biden will be nominated “virtually” ahead of the DNC in August.
***
May 16:
- With pressure growing on Israeli PM Netanyahu to come up with a plan for what comes after the war in Gaza, there is much discussion at home and abroad about what the “endgame” to the conflict might look like.
Meanwhile, in a largely symbolic move, the House passed a GOP bill, with some Democrat support, criticising the White House for pausing arms supplies to Israel.
And it was yet another tiresomely performative day both for Trump’s MAGA acolytes at his Manhattan trial and also amid the chaos that was the GOP-controlled House Oversight Committee.
Republican strategist Susan Del Percio writes about why the parade of sycophants at the hush money trial has been picking up steam…
“Everyone knows that Trump is transparent and transactional. So whether you want a job, have a job or need a job, you’d better be there when Trump calls.”
One of the highest-placed of those who currently has a job appears to have been sending a signal of his own. (Although given the recent criticism of the New York Times, it’s probably worth asking why we’re only learning about this now…)
***
May 15:
- Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico is in serious condition in hospital after being shot in an assassination attempt. The alleged assailant was arrested and identified as Slovak writer and activist Juraj Cintula.
- President Biden and former President Trump will – as of now, at least – meet in a live debate on CNN on June 27. Both have also reportedly accepted an invitation to a debate hosted by ABC on September 10th.
- The family of Jimmy Carter announced that the 99-year-old former President was approaching the end of his life.
***
May 14:
- Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Kyiv in a visit intended to demonstrate US solidarity with Ukraine as it tries to repel the Russian offensive on its north-eastern border. It’s the first visit by a senior US official since Congress passed the delayed measure providing funding.
- Today is primary day, with contests in some interesting states set to give an indicator of the direction of the rest of the national campaign and, perhaps crucially, the current state of the GOP across the country.
The last thing anyone needs looking ahead to the national campaign is having a knee-jerk reaction to every poll, especially this far out, but Nevada’s political guru Jon Ralston’s reaction to the latest NYT/Siena poll in that key state bears noting, simply because the numbers are so unexpected.
But maybe there is a bigger, more urgent structural problem affecting the process itself.
- Donald Trump’s former fixer Michael Cohen is set for cross-examination in the New York “hush money” trial. A couple of Trump’s surrogates – from opposite ends of the IQ spectrum – showed up yesterday to support the former President. Speaker Mike Johnson is expected to be on deck today, so expect more of this.
Meanwhile, the Bob Menendez corruption trial began yesterday with jury selection and Jon Stewart used the occasion to skewer just how broken our entire system actually is.
It’s the best of his segments I’ve seen since Stewart returned to TDS and the fact that we all just laugh and shrug our shoulders shows why we shouldn’t expect anything to change anytime soon.
And talking of New Jersey, here’s just the latest example of where once an image is out there, nothing else, especially provenance, matters.
***
May 12:
- A fresh Russian offensive near Kharkiv – Ukraine’s second-largest city – has led to thousands of people being evacuated. Ukraine’s military chief admitted that his forces are facing a “difficult situation.”
President Zelensky said that “The idea behind the attacks in the Kharkiv region is to stretch our forces and undermine the moral and motivational basis of the Ukrainians’ ability to defend themselves.”
Meanwhile, the weekend saw huge pro-EU, anti-Russian protests in Tblisi, the capital of Georgia.
- Egypt said it would formally join South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, citing “escalating Israeli aggression against Palestinian civilians.”
The UN significantly reduced the estimated casualty figures for the conflict in Gaza previously provided by the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry.
Amid Israel’s continuing assault on Rafah, EJ Dionne writes at The Washington Post how a “showdown between Biden and Netanyahu was unavoidable”. For both leaders, the current situation poses short-, medium- and, for Biden at least, long-term difficulties. Dionne writes:
“Biden needs the fighting in Gaza to subside not only for the sake of his reelection campaign but also because his overall Middle East strategy requires it. He wants to begin negotiations with Saudi Arabia and other Arab partners that would lead to recognition of Israel and moves toward Palestinian statehood.
“But for Netanyahu, an end to the fighting would bring a reckoning with the rage among Israelis over his government’s failure to prevent the Oct. 7 attack, and possibly new elections. Right-wing members of his coalition have threatened to bring down his government if he failed to move on Rafah and keep his promise to destroy Hamas — a goal the U.S. government sees as unrealistic, especially in the absence of a plausible day-after plan.”
- Generally, though, foreign policy is set to play a more prominent than usual role in the coming election and in shaping US policy thereafter.
- After the GOP’s “illegal voting” photo-op heading into the weekend, the Sunday shows were hardly encouraging if you were expecting campaign rhetoric not to continue to be ramped up over the legitimacy of elections.
- The trial of Sen Bob Menendez is set to begin tomorrow. New Jersey’s veteran Democratic lawmaker is charged with bribery, obstruction of justice and extortion. He had been charged in a previous corruption investigation in 2017, a trial that ended with a deadlocked jury.
***
May 11:
- Israel intensified its assault on Rafah after ordering further evacuations. The UN says 150,000 Palestinians have now been forcibly displaced over the past few days to areas unfit for human habitation.
We appear to be rapidly reaching a political tipping point for President Biden in the medium-term effect of his approach to Netanyahu and his government.
- But hey, on that climate thing, Biden’s opponent just offered to sell the planet for a billion dollars.
Donald Trump’s not-so-secretive attempt to shake down Big Oil companies in exchange for legislation to roll back EV production may be legal but certainly has the stench of corruption. But then I guess we long ago passed the moment for asking “is there anything he won’t sell?”
David A. Graham writes in The Atlantic:
“One of the few ways in which Donald Trump has improved American politics is in making explicit what was once veiled in implication or euphemism. During the 2016 election, for example, he said what everyone knew but no politicians would acknowledge: That wealthy donors bought access and fealty with their contributions.”
***
May 10:
- With the Israeli war cabinet approving an “expansion” of military operations in Rafah, the US released details of a report finding that Israel’s use of US-supplied weapons in Gaza was “inconsistent” with human rights law. But… and there’s always a “but”…
Meanwhile, the UN General Assembly overwhelmingly approved a resolution to advance the membership of a Palestinian state. The Israeli delegation didn’t take it well.
- The war in Gaza – and, uncharacteristically, foreign policy in general – looks set even this far out to have a significant impact on November’s election.
- Donald Trump’s hush money trial wrapped for the week. Judge Merchan instructed Trump’s former fixer Michael Cohen – who is expected to begin his testimony on Monday – to refrain from publicly commenting on the case. Cohen could be the prosecution’s final witness.
- An extensive solar storm, triggered by a series of Coronal Mass Ejections reaching Earth, created some spectacular views in skies across the globe. The phenomenon – the largest of its kind for many years – is thought to continue for the next couple of nights. There are some concerns that the storm may affect electrical grids or damage electronic components on satellites. But probably fewer concerns that it will result in everyone going blind and being eaten by a swarm of carnivorous plants.
***
May 9:
- President Biden said the US would withhold some offensive weapons shipments to Israel after Prime Minister Netanyahu ignored appeals not to begin an assault on Rafah. In response, Netanyahu said Israel would “stand alone” and press ahead with its stated goal of “eliminating Hamas”.
Republicans, who of course had previously delayed efforts to authorise funding for both Israel and Ukraine, attacked Biden’s move. Because of course they did.
- Stormy Daniels wrapped up her seven hours of testimony in Trump’s hush money trial. Trump’s lawyers predictably applied a second time for a mistrial and asked for a loosening of the gag order against him so he could “respond” to Daniels. The judge – predictably – denied both moves, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that this whole pantomime is heading for an appeal, while the infinitely more crucial national security and Jan 6th cases against the former President may now likely never be heard.
- Yet despite Trump’s legal woes, his hold on the Republican party, collectively and individually, appears as strong as ever.
***
May 8:
- As they said they would, House Democrats rode to the rescue of Speaker Mike Johnson to shield him from a motion to ouster from Marjorie Taylor Greene.
And this is what he did in return…
- Nikki Haley, who dropped out of the Republican presidential contest months ago, won 128,000 votes – almost 22% – in the Indiana primary.
- Ari Melber had quite a revealing interview with “independent” presidential hopeful RFK Jr (“Biden can’t win if I stay in…)
But, sadly, the show was taped ahead of this story…
***
May 7:
- Israeli forces took control of the Rafah crossing in southern Gaza, the only point of entry between Gaza and Egypt and a crucial gateway for humanitarian assistance.
The Biden administration said it believed Israeli assurances that the operation was “limited”. But other world leaders warned of a further impending crisis for the estimated 1.4million people gathered in Rafah.
- At Donald Trump’s “hush money” trial, Stormy Daniels may have tied up the salacious headlines on her first day of testimony…
But the more significant legal news of the day was probably the move by Trump-appointed Judge Aileen Cannon to delay apparently indefinitely the former President’s Mar a Lago documents case in Florida, which now appears unlikely to come to trial ahead of the election.
- Fallout continues from a Semafor interview with NYT executive editor Joe Kahn over his apparent understanding of the role of a free press in an election where democracy itself is on the ballot.
***
May 6:
- As Israel marked its Holocaust Remembrance Day it was reported that Hamas had accepted a ceasefire proposal in Gaza that could see the return of an uncertain number of hostages.
There was, perhaps inevitably, confusion throughout the day about the status and detail of the deal, but soon after, Israel’s expected offensive in Rafah apparently began in earnest.
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu had previously said that the Rafah operation would go ahead regardless of a ceasefire, a position that has put him at odds with both the US administration and Israeli hostage families, who have been once again protesting in Tel Aviv and elsewhere.
- Today was the annual announcement of the Pulitzer Prize winners.
*
- Donald Trump’s election interference trial resumed in New York City, with the former President fined another $1,000 for violating yet another gag order and being warned that the next offense could mean incarceration.
And in other Trump legal news…
- In the constant battle for attention elsewhere in the GOP, Kristi Noem doubled down, and the media is all too happy to give her the exposure she craves.
But if members of the Democratic political establishment are prepared to normalize what the nation is up against, nothing that goes on within the GOP really matters.
Thankfully, there are still some high-profile Republicans willing to stand up for what their party should stand for.
- No matter what the latest polls might say, there’s a long way to go until this is over – perhaps maybe longer than people might think. Molly Jong-Fast writes at Vanity Fair on How to Survive The Forever Election…
“The postpandemic, post-insurrection political environment is liable to make anyone feel deeply tired and news-avoidant. People, after all, are scared. They remember the ill-conceived mood around the 2016 election, when they were sure that the normal candidate would win, and then they didn’t. Even today, I sometimes get stopped on the street by people wondering if they should set their expectations accordingly. “Is it going to be alright?” they ask, drawing me in closer.
“The thing is, I can’t tell you it’s going to be alright, because I really don’t know. I know what Trump promises to do if he gets back in office—and I know that it’s the stuff of nightmares. Trump will expand the executive branch so much as to essentially become king. And while that might make some voters want to close their eyes, shut their ears, and tune politics out of their daily life, the only way we can avoid it is by paying attention so that what happened in 2016 doesn’t happen in 2024.”
***
May 5:
- Broadcaster Al Jazeera was shut down inside Israel “with immediate effect”. It’s thought to be the first time Israel has shuttered a foreign news outlet.
The move comes amid continued expectations that Israel’s ground offensive in Rafah could be imminent, while talks on a potential ceasefire involving Hamas remain in the balance. Despite more protests in Tel Aviv demanding a hostage deal, there were claims that PM Netanyahu had “sabotaged” any agreement.
Meanwhile Axios reports that the US had last week put a hold on shipments of some US-made ammunition to Israel.
- With some US colleges holding graduation ceremonies this weekend, the continuing student protests over Gaza have created flashpoints with the removal of more encampments.
- After an “audition” gathering this weekend at Mar a Lago, Donald Trump’s search for a potential VP appears to be forcing those “on the list” into an inevitable corner where they can’t be seen to back down or accept responsibility for anything for risk of damaging their chances.
- At least outside of Trump World, there still seem to be some Republicans prepared to publicly support the democratic process.
But if the outcome of the election will depend largely on how people are “feeling”, a sense that the country is “on fire” seems to be taking hold.
***
May 3:
- More than 2,000 people have now been arrested in campus protests against the war in Gaza across the country, as politicians on all sides jostle for advantage. President Biden’s campaign coming under pressure from both sides of the argument, while Republicans are planning to investigate federal funding for universities.
In the Financial Times, Ed Luce writes that “It would be far more worrying if the young were indifferent to the deaths of thousands of children, some of them at the hands of US-supplied munitions.”
And that “In practice, adults from all walks — Republicans, Democrats, the media and university administrations — are exhibiting traits of hysteria and dogmatism they deplore in the young. It should come as no surprise that the protests are getting angrier.”
All of those things were on display at the campus of Ole Miss yesterday, and in the subsequent political reaction to the apparent display of racism against a pro-Palestinian protester.
- In Donald Trump’s “hush money” trial, his long-term aide and former press secretary Hope Hicks testified about the effect of the Access Hollywood tape on Trump’s 2016 campaign and why it may have moved to stifle further salacious stories about the candidate.
*
- Rep Henry Cuellar, a Texas Democrat in a crucial swing district, and his wife were charged with bribery involving foreign interests.
***
May 1:
- Following Tuesday night’s NYPD action at Columbia University, the later evening and small hours of Wednesday saw disturbances at college campuses across the country.
There were violent exchanges between pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli factions on the campus of UCLA in Los Angeles. California Gov Gavin Newsom, in his first public statement on the protests, said the slow response by law enforcement was ‘unacceptable’.
Later on Wednesday, there was another flashpoint in New York City, this time at Fordham University, with NYPD moving in to remove protesters.
Echoes of 1968 and the anti-Vietnam war protests will, inevitably, be a pivotal thread in the current election campaign, particularly with the Democrats holding their Convention in Chicago.
Axios writes that events have presented President Biden with tough options on his approach to Israel’s war on Gaza and reaction to it at home. Andrew Solender and Stephen Neukam write that Democrats are in “panic mode” over their reaction to the campus protests.
But I think Chris Hayes kind of nails it here – before we even address the domestic political context, we have to understand what is driving the moment.
And there was another flashback to the Columbia protest 56 years ago with the passing of novelist Paul Auster.
*
- Time magazine published a lengthy piece based on two interviews by Eric Cortellessa with the former President, laying out how he sees a possible second term.
Seth Abramson explores a scenario for the political violence Trump hints at in the interview.
The campus protests have certainly overshadowed Trump’s hush money/electoral interference trial which resumes on Thursday, and according to Will Bunch, is “boring” – because it should have happened five years ago.
- Trump acolyte Marjorie Taylor-Greene, meanwhile, says she will press ahead next week with a move to vacate Mike Johnson’s speakership, even though Democrats have said they will support him to defeat the vote.
- The Arizona Senate voted to repeal the state’s near-total abortion ban from 1864. Two Republicans sided with Democrats to pass the bill, which now goes to Gov Hobbs for signing. Democrats will hope voters’ outrage over the issue doesn’t dissipate before November.
States of Play 