July 31:
- Tensions escalated still further in the Middle East after Ismail Haniyeh, a leader of Hamas, was killed in the Iranian capital Tehran. The US denied it was involved or had advance knowledge.
- Donald Trump’s trainwreck interview at the National Association of Black Journalists conference in Chicago, and the stream of unhinged soundbites that flowed from it, will doubtless keep the media simmering for a couple of days.
But it has to be said, the lead interviewer, Rachel Scott, the senior congressional correspondent for ABC News, did a great job staying persistent and calm as the Trumpian shitshow of the usual ignorance and offense unfolded before her.
Also, this was probably Trump’s intention all along. Whether he now debates VP Harris in September would seem to hang on whether he needs the attention he can generate from an event like this.
Meanwhile, Trump’s own VP continues to go out of his way to alienate people.
***
July 30:
- Israeli forces struck in Beirut in an attack targeting a Hezbollah commander, apparently in retaliation for last week’s attack in the Golan Heights.
- The Acting Director of the Secret Service testified to a Senate hearing on the Butler PA rally shooting.
- Reuters reported that Democratic nominee Kamala Harris “will tour battleground states next week with her VP pick”. Last night, NC Gov Roy Cooper withdrew from consideration – expectation is that he wants to run for Senate in 2026 – but there’s still a pretty healthy slate, who would each bring individual positives.
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- At the Olympic surfing competition in Tahiti, a remarkable photo by the AFP’s Jerome Brouillet captured the essence of the moment of victory.
***
July 23:
- After securing a majority of pledged electoral delegates overnight – and raking in simply a remarkable number of volunteers and first-time campaign donors – Vice-President Harris headed to a suburb of Milwaukee for her first full campaign rally.
She looked like she was having fun onstage. Yes, there were recognisable soundbites from the 2020 campaign and her limited appearances over the past couple of days, but you can definitely see a powerful stump speech taking shape. And she may have a simple, solid slogan that the crowd picked up on, chanting “We Won’t Go Back”.
Anand Giridharadas writes that “Harris also did a great job of framing the two visions as forward versus backward, past versus future, but then, again, she made it about us. You have the choice between going forward and backward. You decide what kind of place we are. Simple, sharp, clear, empowering of us.”
Speculation over Harris’s likely running mate is inevitably intensifying, with DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison expecting the nomination process for the ticket to be completed by Aug 5th, two weeks before the start of the Democratic Convention in Chicago.
Congressional leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries added their own personal endorsement, with Schumer perhaps seeming a little over-enthusiastic.
President Biden, meanwhile, announced he will make a statement to the country tomorrow night at 8pm.
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- Secret Service Director Kimberley Cheatle resigned following yesterday’s congressional hearing on the circumstances around the shooting of the former President. The Secret Service has advised the Trump campaign to avoid holding outdoor rallies in the near future.
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- Sen Bob Menendez, recently convicted on corruption charges, said he would resign from the Senate on 20th August. (He was required to step down from his position as chair of the Foreign Relations Committee when he was charged in September last year).
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- Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu is in Washington DC ahead of his address to Congress tomorrow. He brought a number of hostage families with him to the nation’s capital for some kind of photo op; ironic, given the pressure he faces in Israel from other hostage families and other opponents.
Netanyahu may have been hoping that a diversionary row with President Biden might distract from his own tenuous domestic position, politically and legally. But with events this past week, the landscape has obviously changed. Vice-President Harris opted not to preside over the Senate for Netanyahu’s speech.
Franklin Foer writes in The Atlantic:
“No American president has suffered as much politically for what he has done on Israel’s behalf as Biden has. Biden’s Zionism cost him the affection of his party’s base, which turned on him at his hour of greatest need. For months, as his campaign faltered, he was heckled by left-wing critics of his Israel policy everywhere he spoke.”
Perhaps unsurprisingly, former President Donald Trump said he would meet with Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago on Friday.
***
July 22:
- With record amounts of money and high-profile endorsements – most notably today from former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – rolling in behind Vice-President Harris, the new Democratic nominee-in-waiting gave her first public comments this morning, welcoming NCAA national champion athletes to the White House.
Because of President Biden’s selflessness and putting country over ego, this campaign has been reset and the political narrative is now in the process of shifting as Democrats coalesce around his Vice-President.
Harris travelled to Wilmington, DE this afternoon to visit what is now her campaign headquarters, amid talk that Jen O’Malley Dillon would be running a campaign that had more than 20,000 volunteers sign up in the first 24 hours, and that Obama campaign adviser David Plouffe would be joining the team.
The Democratic National Committee said it would press ahead with a virtual roll call ahead of its Chicago convention. As of today, no other Democrat besides Harris seems close to securing the nomination.
- Meanwhile, with Donald Trump’s party in the grip of some kind of freakout as they contemplate playing defense in a campaign they thought was on a glide path, his VP pick JD Vance appeared at a rally in his ‘Hillbilly Elegy’ hometown of Middletown, Ohio, where he praised characters from the book like his “Mamaw” Bonnie Vance, who died in 2005. “If you count fourth and fifth cousins, half of you are probably related to me at this point,” Vance said.
“I was told I was going to debate Kamala Harris and now President Trump’s going to get to debate her,” Vance said to laughs. “I’m kind of pissed off about that, if I’m being honest with you.”
Well, not so fast, JD…
But amid the expected political waggery, shit like this, from Vance’s local state Senator George Lang, will likely only get worse as the campaign reveals the core of MAGA for what it is.
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- There are bipartisan calls today for Secret Service Director Kimberley Cheatle to resign after a House hearing on last weekend’s shooting incident at a Donald Trump rally in Butler PA.
***
July 21:
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Update – now over $50million…
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https://twitter.com/ejeancarroll/status/1815109743985229957
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July 20:
- After squandering a full week of news cycles so they could make sure the guns were loaded in their circular firing squad, Democrats on all sides of the argument over President Biden’s position are braced for what’s sure to be a busy – and possibly fateful – weekend.
Ed Kilgore in New York Magazine believes that “Joe needs to go of his own accord, and it needs to happen quickly before Republican and Biden-loyalist claims of a “coup” become all too credible. But it’s obviously a humiliating exercise. So if Biden comes to realize the futility of going forward, what can this proud and stubborn man say that will make him something other than an object of derision or pity?”
- Margaret Sullivan writes this morning about the polling basis for what could be an imminent denouement to the Democratic party’s latest crisis.
“Biden seems to have been in denial about these realities but that may be over, or nearly over. This may be the weekend that he faces what seems to be the inevitable.”
- In The Guardian, Jonathan Freedland thinks that resolving the Biden issue effectively could see an end to Donald Trump’s “run of good fortune” that began with the June 27 debate.
He writes: “[Trump’s] entire campaign has been predicated on Biden being his opponent. Facing someone else means three fundamentals of the race would be altered. First, media attention will shift away from him to the shiny object of a new Democratic nominee. Second, he, not his opponent, will be the oldest person in the race. And third, Trump should no longer have the “change” message – so potent in this age of anti-incumbency – all to himself.”
- Meanwhile, Trump and his running mate JD Vance are set to appear this evening at a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan – site of the final stop of Trump’s 2016 campaign. After the shooting incident in Pennsylvania last weekend, the event was moved to an indoor venue.
Rep. Hillary Scholten, a Democrat representing Grand Rapids, is among the growing number of lawmakers calling on President Biden to step aside.
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Last night, one of President Biden’s staunchest defenders in Congress passed away.
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Elsewhere, a tit-for-tat exchange between Israel and the Yemen-based Houthis reinforced Israel’s contention that it is “fighting a multi-front war”. A spokesman for the Houthis said the Israeli retaliation would only “increase the determination of the Yemeni people” who would continue to support the Palestinian people in what he termed “the most just cause on the face of the earth.”
***
July 19:
- Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was sentenced to 16 years in prison on spying charges by a Russian court in a process that his supporters and the US government had condemned as a “sham”.
NPR reports that “The unusual speed of proceedings – espionage trials often take months if not years – was all but certain to fuel speculation that Moscow and Washington may be closing in on a prisoner swap deal.
“The Biden administration has made no secret it had made several past offers to Moscow aimed at gaining the release of Gershkovich and Paul Whelan, another American serving a lengthy prison sentence on espionage charges.
“Former President Donald Trump, too, has suggested he could bargain with Moscow for Gershkovich’s release if reelected.”
- Trump himself, meanwhile, continues to bask in the adoration of his party after an unhinged and highly performative final night of a convention that reinforced his personal control over the GOP.
Michael Steele wrote: “Of all the untrue things he said, perhaps the biggest was when he claimed “this movement has never been about me.” It’s only ever been about him, and he has spoon-fed Republicans so much of himself that it’s now all they want, no matter how incoherent or offensive it may be.
“On Thursday night, the Party of Lincoln finally solidified itself as the Party of Trump“.
The former President is due to make his first campaign appearance with new VP nominee JD Vance tomorrow in Michigan.
After the RNC’s focus on “ending” the war in Ukraine, Trump also said he has planned a phone call with President Volodomyr Zelensky, who is in London today to address an extraordinary meeting of Keir Starmer’s new cabinet.
- President Biden’s campaign team, meanwhile, appears resolute in claiming that the President is “staying in the race” and that he is “the best person to defeat Donald Trump.” Despite that, pressure will likely only grow over the weekend, as more Democratic lawmakers are expected to join the call for Biden to step aside. Two of the latest are Sen Jon Tester of Montana and Sen Sherrod Brown of Ohio, both of whom face tight re-election races.
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- Airlines, hospitals, retailers and a range of global businesses were hit by a significant IT outage this morning. In the UK, Sky News was forced to suspend broadcasting. Initial reports seemed to be that it was not a cybersecurity issue, but the scale of the disruption was extensive.
***
July 18:
- In case we were in any doubt about how serious the current Republican party is, its nominee Donald Trump gave his acceptance speech on the final night RNC preceded by, among speakers of a similar calibre, WWE’s Hulk Hogan.
After an initial few minutes of apparent conciliation, it became clear that the only “unity” the former President was aiming for was among his base in the hall. And his “excruciating” 92-minute speech allowed him – as Bloomberg reported – to “bask in total control of the party”.
As is often the case at his rallies, though,it really didn’t matter what he said.
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- With the chaos within the Democrats continuing to escalate, however, Trump and his acolytes can hardly be blamed for believing that his return to the White House is becoming inevitable.
- One of those Trump devotees, former CNN host Lou Dobbs died today. He was fired by Fox after pushing election fraud conspiracies that led to the Dominion lawsuit and ended his career as a host on Mike Lindell’s Pillow TV.
Also passing away today, but after a lifetime of creating joy and laughter, and sure to be more widely mourned, was groundbreaking comedian Bob Newhart.
***
July 17:
- Newly-installed VP pick JD Vance gave his acceptance speech tonight, described by James Fallows as “surprisingly lackluster and dull.”
Fallows continued: “Are we seeing his limits as a speaker on the big stage? Or did he keep this intentionally low-key, to appeal to Vance-curious TV viewers rather than the in-person MAGA crowd?”
The endless dissection and discussion of “Hillbilly Elegy” and the Appalachian-adjacent region’s Ulster-Scots history led a friend in Belfast to say: “I’m starting to think somehow this is all going to be our fault.”
The Ohio Senator’s appointment to the ticket has alarmed America’s allies as well as emphasised the completeness of the ideological shift in the Republican party from its Reaganite past to an ‘America First’ future.
Alain Catzeflis writes that “Maybe it’s time to start weaning ourselves off America,” arguing that “The Republican ticket is now firmly in the hands of a nationalist, America First, arch-conservative, socially illiberal, faith-based movement. The choice of Vance lays to rest the hope that Trump would pick a moderate Republican to balance the ticket.”
- Meanwhile, the campaign chaos surrounding President Biden continues, with Congressional Democrats growing increasingly fearful of losing both chambers and even 65% of potential Democratic voters saying he should step aside.
As if that wasn’t enough, it was announced this evening that the President has tested positive for Covid and will, perhaps conveniently, be out of the public spotlight for several days.
***
July 16:
- New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez was found guilty on all charges in his corruption trial. He is the first sitting US Senator to be convicted under a statute regulating “foreign agents”.
- At the RNC, Donald Trump’s former opponents for the nomination in this and previous campaigns lined up to praise him as the agenda focused on immigration.
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- At the All- Star Game in Arlington, the American League beat the National League 5-3, despite Pirates rookie Paul Skenes making an historic start for the senior circuit. But the whole thing seemed a bit sterile.
As Chris Branch writes at The Athletic the traditional thrill is long gone: “The toothlessness of these games — combined with an understandable desire to avoid injury — just renders them moot. Fluff. Was it always like this?”
***
July 15:
- With Donald Trump preparing for an inevitable WWE-style resurrection with his triumphal nomination at the opening night of the RNC, the former President scored a jaw-dropping legal jackpot today when his Florida appointee Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the charges in Trump’s Mar-a-Lago classified documents case.
There was much talk about how Trump had “rewritten” his convention speech – for later this week – in the wake of his survived assassination attempt and now planned to urge national “unity”, but the likelihood of any George Wallace-esque epiphany remains to be seen, especially with Trump’s disciples showing little sign of lowering the temperature.
Rather, both sides in this fiercely polarized contest appear to remain skeptical that any change in rhetorical direction would stick for the remainder of the campaign.
Trump announced his running mate will be former Trump critic, Sen JD Vance of Ohio, which meant the media stopped talking about the classified documents case…
Here’s Vance in 2016 talking about his new boss…
***
President Biden gave a sit-down interview to NBC‘s Lester Holt, which appeared to neither help nor hinder his rehabilitation from his disastrous debate performance three weeks ago. It did, though, hint at the President’s frustration with media coverage of the campaign.
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July 14:
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- President Biden made a prime-time address from the Oval Office this evening as the country absorbs what the FBI is now calling an assassination attempt on former President Trump yesterday.
The incumbent President urged the country to reject “extremism and fury” and called for a dialling down of violent rhetoric.
And yet, the narrative on both sides inevitably appears to be settling – amid an unsettled and uncertain nation.
Michael Schaffer writes in Politico:
“We don’t yet know what the shooter’s motivations were. But even by just looking at the reactions to his act, what’s striking to me is the weirdly familiar 21st century American combination of shock and non-shock that permeates all of them.
“The shock: Someone was apparently able to take multiple shots at a former president of the United States, protected by a phalanx of Secret Service and surrounded by a throng of citizens.
“You might wonder: How could this happen?
“The non-shock: Yet another person in the United States was apparently willing to engage in potentially lethal violence in the arena of politics, the latest in a sorry trail that has menaced elected officials, judges, civilians, the Capitol and now a leading presidential candidate.
“You could just as easily wonder: How did it take so long for this to happen?”
Meanwhile, David Frum in The Atlantic summed up perfectly where things stand.
“Nobody seems to have language to say: We abhor, reject, repudiate, and punish all political violence, even as we maintain that Trump remains himself a promoter of such violence, a subverter of American institutions, and the very opposite of everything decent and patriotic in American life.”
Frum is, obviously, correct. There is no reason why both these things cannot be true at the same time.
Another inevitability is likely this – everything that has happened in the past 24 hours makes the hysterical stories about President Biden over the past week seem so inconsequential, when, of course, they are far from it.
***
July 13:
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- Former President Donald Trump said he had been shot in the ear this evening at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. He was quickly ushered off the stage by Secret Service, pausing only to fist-pump and shout “Fight, Fight, Fight.” One other person in the crowd was killed and a still-uncertain number injured, while a single alleged shooter, apparently in a position outside the event’s security cordon, is understood to have been killed at the scene. Police have not yet named him.
President Biden said he had called the former President and made a statement that “there is no place in America for this kind of violence.” Biden later returned to the White House from his home in Delaware.
This, meanwhile, was a remarkable piece of reporting by the BBC’s Gary O’Donohue, who is of course blind. Kudos to him and his team…
Whatever the story as it unfolds, the AP’s Evan Vucci will likely win another Pulitzer for this shot.
As predictable allegations and anger quickly circulated on social media, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform, while Elon Musk, owner of the X platform, almost immediately endorsed the former President.
With 120 days to go until the election, observers and delegates to the RNC, which starts on Monday in Milwaukee, expected the atmosphere to be “even more intense”. The speakers for the convention agenda were released today while Trump himself is set to announce his Vice-Presidential pick, apparently on the final day of the convention.
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- The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza says at least 90 Palestinians were killed in an Israeli air strike on a designated humanitarian area near Khan Younis.
July 12:
- Leader of the Democratic caucus in the House, Hakeem Jeffries, met privately last night with President Biden after his key press conference at the close of the Nato conference. Opinion seemed to be that the President had performed well – despite some small gaffes – in addressing domestic and international policy issues, but was unlikely to have done enough to defuse the ongoing storm within his party.
More than a dozen congressional Democrats have now publicly called on the President to end his campaign.
***
July 11:
- Today is perhaps the most crucial day for President Biden of this current crisis of confidence, as he is set to hold a solo – overhyped – press conference after the Nato conference. Democratic leaders appear to be holding back until the end of the hugely significant Nato gathering, but the Biden team seems unlikely to get much more wriggle room thereafter, with anxiety growing among Democrats worried about their re-election races.
A meeting between Biden campaign aides and skeptical Democratic Senators failed to quell the discontent, as strategists realised they needed to bolster VP Kamala Harris’s image, whether or not she becomes the nominee.
***
July 8:
- With Congress back in town it’s going to be a crucial week for President Biden, as pressure continues unabated and he tries to push back, his campaign releasing a letter to his divided fellow Democrats and going on Morning Joe to stress he is – at least for now – committed to staying in the race. Every interview and appearance the defiant President does will be a test, but opposition within his own party is growing.
- Biden also has Nato’s 75th anniversary summit coming up this week in Washington DC, with an opportunity to display global leadership at a time when some allies have expressed concerns about Biden’s health and the likelihood of his winning in November.
- Meanwhile, the GOP announced the party platform for its convention which begins next Monday in Milwaukee. The party did not have a formal platform for the 2020 campaign.
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- After tearing through the Caribbean for the past week, Hurricane Beryl made landfall in Texas, bringing a damaging storm surge, hurricane-force winds and the threat of tornadoes. Two million people were left without power. Meanwhile, more than a dozen wildfires continue to rage in California amid record-breaking heat on the West Coast.
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- Several people were killed in a Russian missile strike at Ukraine’s largest childrens’ hospital in Kyiv as part of an extensive daytime missile attack across the country, the biggest for several weeks. Russia continues to deny it targets civilians, claiming a defensive Ukrainian missile caused the damage.
***
July 7:
- The media feeding frenzy continues over issues around President Biden’s age and capacity, with at least four senior House Democrats saying he should step aside during a call with House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries. Meanwhile, efforts by Sen Mark Warner to galvanize Democratic Senators to discuss the President’s position appear to be on hold. Senate Democrats as a whole will meet Tuesday for a regularly scheduled caucus meeting.
*
- In the second round of voting in France’s national election, the far-right was frustrated after its victories in the previous round, as voters coalesced around moderate and left-wing candidates.
But with a hung parliament looming, Andrew Hussey writes in The Observer, the nation has been left “catastrophically fractured”.
“France has not been so politically fraught for decades… [it] has reached a historical moment from which it cannot easily step back.
*
Six Mickey Mantle rookie cards were among a reported $2m-worth of cards stolen from a Dallas card show on Sunday.
***
July 6:
- Amid the fallout from President Biden’s ABC interview, Congressional Democrats are circling the wagons ahead of the Sunday shows.
Ruth Marcus wrote in the Washington Post why Biden’s non-answer last night on why he has resisted a cognitive assessment was a mistake.
“With the refusal to have a cognitive examination, Biden and his campaign are caught in a contradiction of their own making. Before the debate disaster, Biden’s repeated retort to age-related concerns was simple: watch me. We did and what we saw was worrisome.”
There was, though, some respite for the President in a new poll…
- Meanwhile the Trump campaign is, understandably, turning its attention to a scenario where Biden is not the nominee.
- With world leaders preparing to gather in Washington next week for the Nato summit, Politico reports that there is “acute concern” among them about President Biden’s age, health and ability to win the 2024 presidential election.
“These foreign officials largely favor Biden’s re-election and fear that Donald Trump’s return to office would damage the Nato alliance and cripple the war effort in Ukraine. But they have reacted to Biden’s recent debate performance with dismay and fear that Biden may be too frail to defeat Trump and lead a global superpower.”
This comes after Biden told George Stephanopoulous yesterday that he believed no other President could hold Nato together the way he can.
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- In Gaza, there may be a fresh opening for a US-endorsed move towards a ceasefire, after Hamas apparently dropped its demand that Israel commit up front to a complete end to the war.
***
July 5:
After President Biden’s much-hyped prime-time interview with George Stephanopoulous on ABC tonight, the general reaction seemed to be that the 22-minute taped interview was more positive than his debate performance but was unlikely to do much to defuse Democrat concerns.
- The former President, meanwhile, is attempting to distance himself and his campaign from the Heritage Foundation’s ‘Project 2025’ blueprint for a possible second Trump term. Yet his efforts seem cosmetic at best, “preposterous” at least.
- The GOP’s controversial nominee for Governor in North Carolina, Mark Robinson, used July 4 to make some provocative remarks to a church crowd.
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- Sir Keir Starmer officially became British Prime Minister after a stunning landslide victory in yesterday’s General Election. He faces numerous immediate challenges after 14 years of Tory government.
***
July 4:
Democrats and the media continue to question President Biden’s re-election chances and work through their various options – of varying degrees of practicality – for the road forward.
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- This Fourth of July, when so many things in the nation we share are uncertain or worse, please take a few moments to read this piece, I Dissent. An American Story, by my friend Yvonne Watterson. It is sure to resonate with many of us.
And you can read Yvonne’s Q&A for States of Play from last year here:
***
July 2:
- The president of the Heritage Foundation, Kevin Roberts, told the newly-incarcerated Steve Bannon’s radio show that the Supreme Court ruling on immunity should encourage conservatives.
“We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be,” an obviously carried-away Roberts said, completely reasonably and without a hint of provocation.
***
July 1:
- After this week’s debate stumble, media speculation begins about the most advantageous path forward, for President Biden, the Democratic Party and the country.
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Read June here
Read May here
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The March Month-by-Month is here
The February Month-by-Month is here
The January Month-by-Month is here
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2023
The December Month-by-Month is here
The November Month-by-Month is here
The October Month-by-Month is here
The September Month-by-Month is here
The August Month-by-Month is here
Take me to the July Month-by-Month
Take me to the June Month-by-Month
Take me to the May Month-by-Month
Take me to the April Month-by-Month
Take me to the March Month-by-Month
Take me to the February Month-by-Month
Take me to the January Month-by-Month
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States of Play 