*
January 31:
- In a surprise move, the Baltimore Orioles, one of MLB’s most desirable properties, is to be sold to an investor group led by local businessman and founder of the Carlyle Group David Rubenstein for $1.725bn. Orioles legend Cal Ripken Jr. is understood to be part of the investor group.
Industry analysts believe the price to be “low” and offered a number of reasons why the Angelos family might have sought to sell now. The deal includes the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN), in which the team is the majority shareholder in a dual ownership with the Washington Nationals.
***
January 30:
- As the US named the three military personnel killed in this week’s drone attack, tensions grow about the extent of the US response and the consequences of further escalation of the conflict – which is already starting to become separated from the Israel-Gaza situation. Republican hawks are already calling for direct confrontation with Iran, rather than its proxies.
***
January 29:
- With the Super Bowl match-up set between the San Francisco 49ers (boo!) and the Kansas City Chiefs (boo!) the right-wing conspiracy theories are getting increasingly off the hook. Who knows what they’ll be like by the time the actual game rolls around on Feb 11…?
***
January 25:
- The US is making a new attempt to broker a ceasefire in Gaza – where the death toll is now over 25,000, according to Hamas – in order to facilitate the release of the remaining Israeli hostages, with CIA Director Bill Burns set to meet with representatives from the Israeli security agency Mossad, as well as representatives from Egypt and Qatar.
***
January 24:
- Moscow blamed Ukraine for the crash of a Russian aircraft which the Kremlin claimed was carrying Ukrainian prisoners.
- As Donald Trump seems to ease closer to his ‘inevitable’ GOP nomination, he appears to be blocking progress on a Border Security deal, with Republicans in Congress prepared to do his bidding to give him a campaign issue. Sen Mitch McConnell has said that “feuding” within the party may have closed off the path to a deal on the border and corresponding funding for Ukraine.
- Trump’s likely opponent meanwhile picked up a significant endorsement from the United Auto Workers – even if some of the union’s members have been highly critical of President Biden’s policy on Israel. The endorsement could turn out to be a big deal in a state like Michigan, where the election outcome may come down to a few thousand votes in key counties. Biden’s position has been shaky in recent polls, but the state GOP appears to be imploding.
- After almost a decade, Jon Stewart is to return to The Daily Show for the election campaign, hosting on Monday nights and executive producing the rest of the week. His “re-debut” will be on February 12.
***
January 23:
- As Nikki Haley said in her somewhat premature ‘victory’ speech this evening, New Hampshire may be the first GOP primary in this year’s contest, “it will not be the last.” The former Governor of South Carolina, riding an early wave of support from independent voters to appear promisingly competitive, pledged to continue her campaign – possibly, but far from certainly, into her home state a month from now, where she trails well behind Donald Trump.
About ten minutes after the polls closed, the GOP front-runner was projected to win the Granite State by double-digits, giving his path to the nomination a sense of inevitability even as senior Republican figures continued to coalesce around him. One was Texas Senator John Cornyn, who endorsed the twice-impeached former President despite having said last May that Trump’s “time had passed him by.”
“I don’t think President Trump understands that when you run in a general election, you have to appeal to voters beyond your base,” Cornyn said.
Both Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden – whose write-in campaign comfortably topped the Democratic primary, despite not being on the ballot, defeating gelato baron Dean Phillips – have now turned their eyes to the general election campaign.
In short, Trump underperformed against Haley, with a significant number of Republican and independent voters who likely would not vote for the former President in the general election. Meanwhile, the percentage of just Republican voters who said a conviction would render Trump unfit for the office rose to more than 40 percent, from 30 percent in Iowa.
And of course, even in victory, he couldn’t leave the stage tonight without a typically angry, needy and factually inaccurate speech.
***
January 22:
- Despite having taken on an enhanced significance for Nikki Haley as what might be her final electoral challenge to Donald Trump, tomorrow’s GOP primary in New Hampshire appears to have fizzled out as a contest with the former President still so far ahead and an apparent ceiling to Haley’s support, even factoring in the potential backing of independents and registration-shifting Democrats.
- While the incumbent President is not on the ballot – but other Democrats are – since the party’s first official primary will be in South Carolina on February 3, his supporters have organised a ‘write-in Biden’ campaign. Meanwhile, worryingly, New Hampshire law enforcement is investigating a robocall circulating today imitating Joe Biden and urging Democrats not to vote.
- With immigration set to be a key element of campaigning this year – in part because it appears House Republicans don’t actually want to do a deal to alleviate the situation on the southern border as they think the issue will benefit Donald Trump – the Supreme Court today ruled that the DOJ had power to dismantle razor wire that had been installed at the border by the state of Texas.
***
January 21:
- Ron DeSantis dropped out of the Presidential Presidential contest two days before the New Hampshire primary, and endorsed former President Donald Trump. After losing by a significant distance in Iowa on which he had based his future campaign chances, The Florida Governor continued in his concession message to rail against “woke culture”.
A year and a bit is a long time in politics….
Critics were quick to mock the former candidate for his recent rhetoric about “kissing the ring” of the GOP front-runner. Trump, meanwhile, said he was “honored” to receive the endorsement he had referred to as “DeSanctimonious” or “Meatball Ron” and “looked forward to working with him.”
The only remaining challenger to Trump’s ascent, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley – apparently NOT Nancy Pelosi – continues to use the “generational leadership” pitch against Trump to appeal to DeSantis voters in an attempt to close her 15-point gap. But New Hampshire now seems to represent the final opportunity for Republicans to reject everything that a potential Trump candidacy would mean.
***
January 18:
- Congress reached a deal on a further Continuing Resolution which keeps the government running until March and again kicked the can on a potential shutdown. But there are still internal issues within the House GOP over border security, since the party’s presidential front-runner wants to keep it a live issue during the election campaign.
- Donald Trump, meanwhile, showed up at the damages hearing in his E Jean Carroll defamation case. Generally, it didn’t go well. It’s the start of a long year of court appearances for the former President, as he attempts to merge the legal and political elements of a campaign he hopes will keep him out of jail.
***
January 15:
- Donald Trump won the GOP’s Iowa Caucus by a record margin. But hold up there, maybe this entrance poll finding is important…?
***
January 11:
- In a significant escalation of the conflict in the Middle East – but one that had been long telegraphed – the US and UK launched strikes on Iran-backed Houthi sites inside Yemen in retaliation for attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
Iran called the attacks “a violation of Yemen’s sovereignty” while Russia requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to respond. The Houthis vowed to continue their action against shipping, saying they welcomed direct confrontation with the US and that aggression “would not go unanswered”.
President Biden said the action sent a message that the US and its allies would not tolerate the attacks on shipping, and would not rule out further measures.
- At the International Court of Justice in The Hague, South Africa accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza and demanded an emergency suspension to Israel’s military campaign. Israel will respond to the charges tomorrow.
- In another courtroom, this time in New York, closing arguments wrapped up in the Trump Organisation civil fraud trial, with the NY Attorney-General seeking a fine of $370m, along with a ban on Donald Trump and his sons from doing business in the state. The former President continues to use his court appearances as mini-campaign rallies, claiming persecution and victimhood at every opportunity, and of course his every word continues to be carried live.
***
January 10:
- Chris Christie withdrew from the GOP primary race, eviscerating Donald Trump and his apologists within the Republican party on his way out the door, saying the former President was unfit to hold office and that “anyone who’s unwilling to say he [Trump] is unfit to be President, is themselves unfit to be President.”
It was one of a number of pointed jabs at both Nikki Haley and Ron De Santis, who later faced off in the final GOP “debate” before Monday’s Iowa caucuses. The candidates for apparent second-place again failed to turn their attack on the guy in first place.
Trump himself, meanwhile, did a town hall on Fox News – his first live and unedited TV appearance in months – and attracted more viewers than the CNN “debate”. But while he had a sympathetic audience, he again insisted on saying the quiet part out loud on abortion and other issues.
- In the latest episode of Congressional theatre, Hunter Biden and his lawyer showed up to a hearing on whether he should be held in contempt of Congress for not showing up to a hearing. Almost immediately, GOP members, clearly taken by surprise, went out of their way to demonstrate that they’re not serious people. But they know their voters mostly don’t care.
***
January 9:
- 2023 was confirmed as the world’s hottest year on record, by some distance, and “likely the world’s warmest in the last 100,000 years”.
At Donald Trump’s hearing in Washington seeking blanket Presidential immunity, his lawyer appeared to argue that a President could order his political opponents murdered by the forces of the state and not necessarily face criminal consequences for doing so.
***
January 8:
- It’s one week until the GOP’s Iowa caucuses and former President Trump still holds a 30-odd point poll lead, despite infrequent visits to a state whose electoral process is built around retail politics. But he was there this past weekend, referring to those of his supporters imprisoned after the Jan 6th insurrection as “hostages”.
Among those apparently running to replace Trump (or not), the path is narrowing; with Nikki Haley seemingly joking that New Hampshire’s primary next week can “correct” whatever happens in the Hawkeye State, Ron DeSantis preparing for his own ‘State of the State’ address, and Vivek Ramaswamy hoping that in the land of ultimate retail politics, pulling a “double Grassley” (visiting each of the state’s 99 counties twice) will pay off.
Trump will apparently attend at least one of his trials this coming week, including his hearing tomorrow in DC on Presidential immunity, issuing a threat to indict Joe Biden if he wins a second term.
The current President meanwhile was in South Carolina today, where his speech at the Mother Emanuel Episcopal Church in Charleston, where a white supremacist gunman killed eight people in 2015, was interrupted by protesters calling for a ceasefire in Gaza.
***
January 7:
- The House apparently reached a bi-partisan budget deal which could avert the threat of a partial government shutdown, but right-wing Republicans are already pushing back against what they see as a lack of progress on border policy; in turn threatening continued aid for Ukraine.
***
January 6:
- It’s the three-year anniversary of the 2021 insurrection.
- The Pentagon revealed that Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin had been hospitalized five days ago, following what they called a “minor elective procedure”. It remains uncertain how incapacitated the Secretary was, or exactly when the White House was informed.
***
January 5:
- Long-time NRA leader Wayne LaPierre said he was stepping down, citing “ill health”. His trial on corruption charges is due to begin on Monday.
***
January 4:
- A new tranche of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein were released, but are likely to disappoint conspiracy theorists expecting new revelations concerning celebrities connected to the former financier.
***
January 2:
- South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung was stabbed in the neck during a visit to the port city of Busan. Lee was taken to hospital and a man was arrested.
***
January 1:
An enormous earthquake hit Japan, triggering a tsunami warning. Initial reports were that eight people had been killed during the 7.5 magnitude event, but that number quickly rose.
What will this crucial election year hold?
Oliver Darcy at Reliable Sources looks at some of the looming questions facing the media industry in the coming months.
States of Play 