*
February 29:
- Israel is being widely criticised after “around a hundred” Palestinians died in an incident where IDF troops were accused of opening fire on people around an aid convoy in Gaza. The US, meanwhile, is said to be considering air-lifting aid into Gaza.
- With a new Monmouth poll showing immigration as the leading campaign policy topic, both President Biden and Donald Trump are in different parts of Texas meeting with Border Patrol members. Biden encouraged his likely opponent to work with him to pass border security legislation rather than continue to scupper a deal in order to campaign on the issue.
Seriously, though, Texas is experiencing its worst-ever wildfires, now affecting more than a million acres.
- Vladimir Putin gave his State of the Nation address in Moscow, two weeks out from an election that is expected to reinforce his hold on power. Putin pushed back on the recent suggestion by French President Macron about the possibility of Nato troops on the ground in Ukraine, warning of the risk of nuclear conflict.
***
February 28:
Big News Day…
- The Supreme Court surprisingly agreed to hear Donald Trump’s argument for immunity in the alleged insurrection case, further delaying the start of any court proceeding until at least the end of April. If the former President’s strategy to delay the trial succeeds in pushing any accountability to after the election, the Supreme Court will in effect have conferred de facto immunity.
With SCOTUS also set to rule on the Colorado case excluding Trump from the state’s ballot, a third state joined Colorado and Maine when a judge in Illinois decided that the Republican front-runner should be excluded. Illinois will hold its primary on March 19.
- Elsewhere, Trump’s attempt to halt the payment of a $454million penalty in his civil fraud trial was rejected. He now has until March 25 to secure loans for a bond covering the full amount of the judgement.
- Sen Mitch McConnell announced he would give up his position as leader of the Republican caucus after November’s election. The 82-year-old McConnell is the longest-serving leader in the history of the upper chamber.
- Michigan’s primary results overnight held some warning signs for both front-running campaigns. For President Biden, the – expected – vigorous showing by voters declaring themselves “uncommitted” was what Politico described as a “political Rorschach test” – “..an option to register discontent, not to protest any particular policy. But the campaigning ahead of the election — and the Biden camp’s reaction last night — makes clear Biden needs to figure things out in the Middle East, and fast.”
For Republicans, even another comfortable victory for their presumptive nominee – who has swept all five early contests – indicated continuing misgivings among potential voters, and while Nikki Haley remains in the race it’s difficult to map out exactly how reliable Trump’s support will be come November.
But Haley herself admitted yesterday it’s “possible” the party is shifting towards Trump and away from her, suggesting she would remain in the race at least until Super Tuesday next week. “What I’m saying to my Republican Party family is, we are in a ship with a hole in it, and we can either go down with the ship and watch the country go socialist left, or we can see that we need to take the life raft and move in a new direction.”
- The House returned today, and with pressure on Speaker Mike Johnson – even from within his own party following yesterday’s “intense” White House meeting – a short-term deal was apparently reached to avert a government shutdown. The logjam over aid for Ukraine continues, however, with Johnson claiming that border security should be the first priority, despite previously rejecting a bi-partisan deal at the insistence of Donald Trump.
- Yet in another indicator of Republicans’ priorities, Hunter Biden testified behind closed doors before two GOP committee inquiries aimed at impeaching his father. The potentially pivotal hearing comes as Republicans have been distancing themselves from the discrediting of their “star” informant.
…
February 27:
- Voters go to the polls today in Michigan, home to a significant and vocal Arab-American population. President Biden says he is “hoping” for a ceasefire in Gaza by Monday, ahead of the approaching Ramadan, but more than a million votes in Michigan have already been cast. The state’s Democratic Governor, Gretchen Whitmer said there would likely be a “sizeable” protest vote against Biden.
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu said at the weekend that even if negotiators were to reach a deal it would merely “delay” Israel’s planned operation in Rafah.
- In a GOP primary against a backdrop of local party inflighting – and conflicting primary votes – Donald Trump is expected to again defeat Nikki Haley, who this weekend saw the influential Koch network remove its financial support after her loss in her home state, saying it could not see a “widening path” to the nomination for her.
- President Biden will host Congressional leaders at the White House today, with pressure growing with each day as the nation counts down to a potential government shutdown on Friday. The House returns tomorrow, with obviously limited logistical time available for a deal. Perhaps if there is a substantive announcement to be made, he won’t make this one holding an ice-cream cone.
Read our Q&A with Norma Cohen after the resolution of last year’s debt ceiling fight.
***
February 26:
- Sweden is finally set to become the 32nd member of Nato after Hungary removed its objection to wrap up a process that took almost two years.
- Donald Trump lodged a formal appeal against the record judgement in his civil fraud trial, while his legal woes continued, with NYC DA Alvin Bragg seeking a gag order on the former President in his hush money case next month, submitting a detailed filing outlining previous instances of his attacks on lawyers, jurors and the legal process as a whole.
- Ronna Romney McDaniel said she would step aside as chair of the RNC on March 8, three days after Super Tuesday, by when Trump is likely to have all-but sealed the Republican nomination. Trump is still expecting to install his daughter-in-law Lara Trump as co-chair in order to gain greater control over the committee’s resources.
***
February 25:
- Twenty-five-year-old USAF serviceman Aaron Bushnell died after setting himself on fire outside the Israeli embassy in Washington DC on Sunday, in protest at US support for the War on Gaza. This was his final social media post:
***
February 24:
- Today marks two years of war in Ukraine following the Russian invasion – with still no sign that Congressional Republicans will let an aid package happen.
- Donald Trump, as expected, won the South Carolina GOP primary, but Nikki Haley’s 40-odd per cent of the vote means she says she’s staying in the race at least until Michigan on Tuesday night and likely Super Tuesday on March 5th. Trump’s advisers are reportedly trying to get him to “pivot” away from his focus on personal grievance. Good luck with that…
- Republican elected officials, meanwhile, are attempting to distance themselves from the Alabama ruling affecting embryos, after three fertility clinics in the state paused in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments.
***
February 23:
- President Biden announced new sanctions on Russia in the wake of the death of Alexei Navalny in a Siberian prison.
- Wayne LaPierre, former CEO of the National Rifle Association, was found guilty along with the organisation of mismanaging charitable funds.
***
February 21:
- President Biden is reportedly considering a series of executive actions to tackle immigration at the US southern border. These could include changes to existing asylum regulations.
- Pressure is growing on Republican Congressmen Jim Jordan and James Comer after it emerged that the “FBI informant” on which the GOP had based much of its attempt to impeach President Biden had been allegedly relaying information provided by Russian intelligence.
- Confusion and anger has greeted the Alabama Supreme Court’s declaration that embryos are “children”.
***
February 20:
- The US again vetoed a UN resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, instead proposing a “temporary pause” in fighting to allow the release of hostages. Earlier, Israel issued an ultimatum to Hamas to release the remaining hostages by Ramadan (March 10), effectively setting the date for a Rafah ground offensive.
- President Biden is considering fresh sanctions against Russia over the death of Alexei Navalny.
- With US aid to Ukraine remaining in doubt, Germany’s coalition government now appears to be splintering over sending cruise missiles to the Ukrainian forces.
- Meanwhile, with the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion coming this weekend, the two men responsible for holding up military support for Ukraine – House Speaker Mike Johnson and prospective GOP nominee Donald Trump – met at Mar-a-Lago.
- In London, Wikileaks founder Julian Assange began what is likely to be his final appeal against potential extradition to the US.
***
February 19:
- After claiming that Russian authorities are “hiding” her husband’s body, the widow of Alexei Navalny pledged to continue his work in opposition to Vladimir Putin. Yulia Navalnaya urged Russians “to share not only the grief and endless pain that has enveloped and gripped us — but also my rage.”
Donald Trump, meanwhile, broke his silence on the death of the Russian activist. The contrast could hardly have been more stark.
- Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu said Israeli forces are pushing ahead with plans for a ground offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, further increasing the frustration in the White House.
- After Sen Joe Manchin said he wouldn’t run on a third party ticket, the No Labels group is understood to be still looking for potential candidates. The GOP, meanwhile, is not…
- On Presidents Day, historians from the Presidential Greatness Project ranked the Presidents – their top three beingLincoln, FDR and Washington. Joe Biden came in 14th. Donald Trump ranked at the very bottom of the list.
***
February 18:
- Alexei Navalny’s death was confirmed, but with some uncertainty over the release of his body. Meanwhile, with the US House now in recess, frustrating moves towards a Ukraine aid package, the issue of support for Kyiv is further polarizing politics.
Meanwhile, as The Guardian writes, with cracks in morale for Ukraine’s support emerging, Vladimir Putin’s control over domestic Russian politics appears total.
“After next month’s elections, he will be crowned for another six-year term as president, and his tenure could surpass even that of Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin. Putin has been in charge for 24 years so far, while Stalin died in 1953 after ruling for 29 years.“
- Donald Trump has yet to comment on Navalny’s death, leading Liz Cheney to condemn the “Putin wing” of the GOP. And with Maga-world digesting the implications of yesterday’s massive financial judgement against their leader – leading some pro-Trump truckers to threaten to boycott New York City – the former President appeared at SneakerCon in Philadelphia to hawk a new line of $399 gold sneakers and a range of fragrances that can only smell like desperation.
***
February 16:
- Reports out of Russia indicate that anti-Putin activist and fierce critic of the Russian government Alexei Navalny is dead. The 47-year-old opposition figure is said to have died in prison after “feeling unwell after a walk”, according to local reports.
*
- In another big – bad – legal day for former President Donald Trump, the judge in his NYC fraud trial found him liable for more than $350million in ‘disgorgement’ and barred him from doing business in New York for three years.
- Meanwhile, an FBI ‘informant’ was charged with giving false evidence against Hunter Biden and his father, in relation to Ukraine business dealings. The development undermines efforts by Republicans to find a case for impeaching the President.
- Fulton County DA Fani Willis did not give further evidence in a hearing into possible ethics violations, but her father did, saying he and his daughter had received multiple threats as a result of the case.
After the second day there still does not, thus far, appear to have been any evidence of a specific conflict of interest which could warrant her disqualification from the case. The point, though, as always with Trump lawyers, is the show.
- Talking of a show, reports indicate that the former President is considering delivering the Republican response to the State of the Union address on March 7, two days after Super Tuesday, when he is expected to be close to clinching the party’s nomination.
- President Biden is expected to make his first visit to East Palestine, Ohio, one year after the devastating crash of a train carrying chemicals. The President, who has been criticised for not visiting the community sooner, is expected to talk about how his administration is holding rail operator Norfolk Southern accountable for the crash.
- As Republicans try to capitalize on the report of Special Counsel Robert Hur into President Biden’s document-handling case – and comments about his memory – it was announced that Hur will testify before a GOP-led House panel next month. It emerged that White House lawyers “forcefully” protested the language in Hur’s report before it was released.
And yet, after all of that, this particularly narrative refuses to die…
***
February 15:
- On March 25, Donald Trump will become the first former US President to go on trial on criminal charges when jury selection begins in his ‘hush money’/election interference case in New York City.
Today was a big Trump-related legal day – one of many to come. In Georgia, DA Fani Willis appeared in court to testify over her relationship with a member of her prosecutorial team putting together Trump’s Fulton County election interference Rico case.
Elsewhere, Special Counsel Jack Smith urged the Supreme Court to reject Trump’s efforts to delay his trial related to the Jan 6th insurrection by raising the issue of blanket Presidential immunity. Trump’s lawyers have attempted to derail or at least slow-walk every one of Trump’s potential trials – which seems to be working so far.
- One person was killed and more than 20 injured in a shooting incident following yesterday’s Super Bowl Victory Parade by the Kansas City Chiefs.
Yesterday was also the sixth anniversary of the mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida; as well as the shooting last year at the Michigan State University campus in East Lansing, MI.
Read ‘Spartan Strong’, the Q&A with Rose Jacobs, who was living on the MSU campus at the time.
- Capitol Hill and political media seemed to lose their collective minds over a possible – and initially unspecified – national security threat, which turned out to be a warning that Russia intended to use nuclear weapons to target western satellites in orbit.
- Meanwhile, any progress on House approval for further funding for Ukraine – and Israel – seems to be floundering, despite President Biden’s urging. The House is now in recess until Feb 28, with a government shutdown technically set to begin on March 1.
- Following reports that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu had ordered his negotiators to withdraw from ceasefire talks, Israeli forces entered the Al-Nasser Medical Centre, one of Gaza’s last remaining hospitals.
***
February 14:
- As New York City experienced its first significant snowfall in a long while, voters in Long Island’s District 3 elected Democratic former three-term Congressman Tom Suozzi to flip the House seat vacated when serial fabulist George Santos was expelled in December for ethics violations.
After an intense – and expensive – special election, Suozzi turned Santos’s 8-point margin in 2022 to a roughly 8-point victory himself – the same margin by which Joe Biden carried the district in 2020. Suozzi could be sworn in this week, ahead of next week’s post-holiday recess, bringing the state of the House to 219-213 in favour of Republicans.
- In another key special election in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, Jim Prokopiak won to retain the Democrats’ single-seat majority on the PA state legislature.
- In the House itself, Republicans succeeded in passing a Bill by a single vote impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. It will now likely fall in the Senate.
- In Tom Suozzi’s victory speech, he appealed to Republican lawmakers to “stop running around after Trump and start running the country.” Trump himself, meanwhile, moved to appoint his daughter-in-law – and poor Tom Petty impersonator – Lara Trump as co-chair of the RNC. She immediately said that if she is confirmed in the post, “every single penny” of party funding will be spent on the former President’s campaign.
***
February 13:
- Amid the shadow of a potential threat to the Nato alliance cast by Donald Trump’s weekend remarks, a standalone bill for an aid package for Ukraine – as well as Israel and Taiwan – remains in doubt. GOP Senators conducted a filibuster on the measure overnight in a bid to stop it advancing in the Senate, while House Speaker Mike Johnson pre-emptively declared it dead on arrival.
Republicans in the House will today move again to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. A previous attempt narrowly failed last week, and this will again come down to attendance. Even if it were to pass it would likely be defeated in the Senate.
And the razor’s-edge House will get a new member after today’s hotly-contested special election for the seat in Long Island, NY vacated with the expulsion of George Santos.
Even as former Nato Commander Gen Wesley Clark reacted strongly against Trump’s remarks, the media continued to find a way to both-sides even this…
- Trump himself, hoping to further delay at least one of his trials, applied to the Supreme Court to reverse in part the DC’s appellate court ruling that he is not immune from prosecution.
- TPM meanwhile published a series of memos outlining how Trump’s legal team intended the legal process to play out after the Jan 6th insurrection – essentially showing the intention to extend the chaos through to inauguration day, making it difficult for the incoming President Biden to take office.
- John Stewart is back.
February 12:
- While America watched the Super Bowl, Israel’s assault on the city of Rafah in southern Gaza continued to grow in intensity, amid warnings from world leaders. The Israeli military later said they had rescued two hostages – men aged 60 and 70 – from a building in Rafah.
- Donald Trump’s remarks encouraging Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to Nato allies has caused anger and consternation in Europe, and led to the EU and Nato stepping up contingency planning should Trump return to the White House.
Rep Marco Rubio was among GOP representatives who scrambled to defend Trump’s comments.
- The remarks of course, come at a time when continued US aid to Ukraine is in flux, with Congressional Republicans continuing to throw up roadblocks. The Senate will aim this week to pass a $95billion foreign aid package with no guarantee it would pass the House.
- During last night’s Super Bowl, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s super PAC, American Values 2024, aired a 30-second ad apparently costing $7million. It didn’t go down well with the Kennedy family.
***
February 11:
The media need a horse race, no matter how unfit one of the horses might be.
To be fair, Doug, you don’t have to…
***
February 10:
- With Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu having rejected the latest Hamas ceasefire offer this week, Israel is preparing an assault on the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, near the border with Egypt. The Palestinian Authority has said the planned assault aims to drive out more than a million Palestinians who have fled to Rafah. But there is nowhere for them to go if attacks escalate.
- President Biden, despite having said Israel’s military campaign in Gaza is “over the top,” and that an attack on the city would be disastrous, continues to see his approval fall among Palestinian-Americans in key states like Michgan, and, particularly, among young voters.
- Biden’s separate issues of perception and portrayal, meanwhile, also continue to dog his campaign; despite the increasingly blatant excesses of his prospective opponent and how they are embraced by the GOP.
***
February 9:
- Democrats’ anger intensified over the Special Counsel’s report on President Biden’s document handling investigation, which has put his age and alleged mental acuity back in the spotlight – from where, lets face it, it hasn’t been far since the formal re-election campaign began. With distinct echoes of FBI Director James Comey’s behaviour in 2016 in “clearing” Hillary Clinton, yet managing to cloud her character, the Special Counsel put the Biden team on the defensive, helped by some sensationalist reporting.
- Biden’s prospective Presidential opponent Donald Trump, fresh from a seemingly successful overturning of the Colorado ruling which would have kept him off the ballot in that state, easily won the Nevada GOP caucus, as expected, his fourth primary victory. Yet nearly twice as many Nevada voters turned out to vote for Biden in the Democratic primary.
- Early voting is under way ahead of Tuesday’s special election in Long Island, NY, to replace expelled Congressman George Santos. Meanwhile in Maryland, former Gov Larry Hogan said he would contest the open Senate seat left by departing Sen Ben Cardin.
- Tucker Carlson’s “interview” with Vladimir Putin went pretty much exactly as you’d expect.
***
February 8:
- The Supreme Court appears prepared to decide that Donald Trump will be allowed to remain on the ballot in Colorado, rejecting an unprecedented challenge invoking the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment. Justices raised concerns about individual states reaching different conclusions on whether a candidate could run for office, but there was comparatively little discussion over whether or not Trump’s actions surrounding Jan 6th 2021 formally constituted an insurrection.
The former President said afterwards that he considered the legal action “more election interference by the Democrats.”
- A Special Counsel investigating President Biden’s alleged misuse of classified documents found that he had “willfully” retained and disclosed highly classified materials after leaving office as Vice-President, but concluded that no criminal charges were warranted in the case. The bad news for the Biden camp, though, could be the description of the President as “a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”
- The Senate voted to advance a foreign aid package including support for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. The Senate could remain in session through the weekend to pass the measure, but even then it would face stiff opposition in the House.
Majority leader Chuck Schumer had brought the measure forward after Republicans killed a bipartisan bill including border security measures they had demanded as a condition of support for Ukraine. Schumer said he would give his Republican colleagues “time to figure themselves out” after yesterday’s chaos.
***
February 7:
- Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu today to discuss a possible deal which could result in the release of remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza.
- A US strike in Baghdad killed a leader of Hezbollah as retaliation continued for the recent drone attack on US forces in Jordan which killed three service personnel.
- Amid a cornucopia of dysfunction on Capitol Hill, Congressional Republicans finally killed a bi-partisan Border Security Bill – one that they themselves pressed for and largely constructed – with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell saying that after Speaker Mike Johnson had indicated that the proposed legislation would not pass the House, the Bill was effectively dead.
Republicans fell into line with their party’s presumptive Presidential nominee, who wants no action on immigration so he can campaign on the issue.
Senate Democrats will attempt to pass a ‘Plan B’ measure, just covering aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan which was attached to the border package. There is, of course, no guarantee that will pass, and even if it did, it would likely face further GOP resistance in the House.
- Conservative TV personality Tucker Carlson is in Moscow interviewing President Vladimir Putin, claiming his pantomime is some kind of victory for journalism. Journalists don’t seem to agree…
***
February 6:
Today was one of those days with, as Stephen Beschloss writes, “a crush of news”.
- A DC Circuit Court of Appeals panel unanimously ruled that former President Trump was not entitled to immunity for any actions – including criminal actions, specifically his activities related to the insurrection of Jan 6th 2021. The ruling reads, in part: “Presidential immunity against federal indictment would mean that, as to the President, the Congress could not legislate, the Executive could not prosecute and the Judiciary could not review. We cannot accept that the office of the Presidency places its former occupants above the law for all time thereafter.”
Trump’s lawyers now have one week to appeal to the US Supreme Court, with any delay to any of his trials until after the November election increasingly crucial to his Presidential ambitions.
Meanwhile, In an exhibition of naked ambition and devotion to their “leader” 65 House Republicans signed on to a resolution that Trump “did not engage in insurrection”. Sen JD Vance is likely to introduce a similar resolution in the Senate, with the collective aim of influencing the Supreme Court in Thursday’s Colorado decision on removing Trump from the ballot under the 14th Amendment.
- The House GOP failed by one vote in its farcical move to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Three Republicans voted against the measure. Republican “leadership” may try again, but a stain of chaos is fast attaching to speaker Mike Johnson.
- In other “leadership” news, RNC Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel is expected to resign later this month amid the ongoing chaotic state in some local Republican parties. A Trump loyalist and election denier, Michael Whatley of North Carolina, is tipped to replace her.
- In the Nevada GOP primary, Nikki Haley lost heavily to “none of the above”. Donald Trump was not on the ballot, standing instead in the state’s caucus tomorrow, where he is likely to pick up all of Nevada’s delegates.
- In what could prove to be a significant legal decision in Michigan, a woman was found guilty on four counts of involuntary manslaughter for her son’s school shooting in 2021. It is the first time in US history that the parent of a school shooter has been found criminally responsible for killings carried out by their offspring.
***
February 5:
- Chaos continues around the bipartisan immigration bill. After backing the Senate’s procedural vote set for Wednesday, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell apparently changed his position, again jeopardising the attached funding for Ukraine and Israel.
- Meanwhile the House GOP is pressing ahead with impeachment proceedings against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. President Biden condemned the action, calling it unprecedented and unconstitutional, and said it would do nothing to solve the issues at the border, while there is a potential solution on the table.
***
February 4:
- The Senate released details of a $118bn immigration bill that would include the release of aid for Ukraine and Israel. But there are still doubts the bi-partisan measure might even clear the Senate, before going to the House, where Republicans appear to have indicated they do not want the border issue resolved ahead of the election.
- The US carried out strikes against Huthi positions in Yemen for a third straight day.
***
February 3:
- President Biden scored a big victory in his party’s South Carolina primary, amid not much suspense.
But the latest NBC News poll is just the latest to be of concern to the current President’s team.
States of Play 