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August 10:
- Israel bombed a complex containing a school and shelter in Gaza City’s Daraj neighborhood. Local reports said at least 100 people were killed. Israel claimed the attack was “targeting senior Hamas officials”.
- Not really sure what to make of this story yet. The only thing anyone seems to know for sure is that by now few people trust anything the candidate or his campaign claims.
It’s maybe interesting, though, that the alleged bad guys, yet again, are the Iranians, or individuals “with ties” to Tehran.
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August 8:
- What a difference three weeks makes.
Boosted by a new wave of undeniable Walz-mentum, polling shows Kamala Harris’s campaign putting – for now – some space between it and Trump-Vance nationally. A new Ipsos poll shows Harris leading by five points.
Even in a short campaign it’s still early, of course, but separately, “Ipsos found Harris leading Trump 42% to 40% in the seven states where the election was closest in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
There are still, certainly, some issues for the VP to work on and get straight, presentationally…
But Gallup says only 1 per cent of voters put “Middle East” as their main voting motivation – although young voters are definitely among that section, it remains to be seen what effect the shift from Biden to Harris will have.
Support for RFK Jr is also significantly lower in the first poll since the “dead bear” story broke. (And how nuts does it sound even to say that?)
The Republican nominee, meanwhile, conscious that, well, there might be “issues” with his campaign, assembled some reporters down the hall at Mar-a-Lago to just basically lie about his crowd size and other stuff for a while, giving off a Four Seasons Total Landscaping vibe.
With Harris likely coming out of the DNC on a further bump over the next couple of weeks, Trump really had little option but to agree to the Sept 10 date for the previously-arranged ABC debate – but he’s still trying hard to make a Fox News debate happen.
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August 7:
- Ukraine launched a significant incursion into Russia’s Kursk region yesterday and with fighting ongoing, Vladimir Putin called an emergency meeting of his top defence officials.
- The GOP is digesting the Tim Walz pick and attempting to recalibrate, having largely expected Josh Shapiro to be named to the ticket. As JD Vance tried to say Shapiro was passed over because of his Jewish faith, the former President went to his safe space…
- In yesterday’s elections there was a setback for the progressive wing of the Democratic party as Cori Bush lost her primary in Missouri. In Michigan, the vacant senate seat will be between Elissa Slotkin and Trump endorsee Mike Rogers.
- Meanwhile in Georgia, new rules give additional powers to ostensibly non-partisan local election officials that could delay the certification of votes for the entire state.
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The Chicago White Sox saved some face…
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August 6:
- VP Kamala Harris – now the Democratic party’s official nominee – named Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate and introduced him to the country at a high-energy rally in Philadelphia that dripped of optimism, hope and joy. The ticket now heads out to key battleground states to draw a contrast with their opponents’ campaign of anger and retribution.
The next 90 days are going to be fun, thank God; and we certainly couldn’t say that three weeks ago.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, the “runner-up” for the VP slot and perhaps the Democrats’ best public speaker, gave an inspirationally rousing speech in support of the new ticket. His role in the outcome of his state will be crucial in a short campaign.
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Donald Trump, meanwhile, is clearly rattled, if not obviously unwell…
Former Trump lawyer Jenna Ellis flipped for a plea deal in Arizona’s so-called fake electors case. Magaworld, understandably, isn’t happy.
- The Supreme Court rejected a stunt by Missouri’s Attorney-General to halt the former President’s sentencing in his New York hush money trial. Sentencing remains set for September 18, with the judge due to decide earlier that month if the verdict is affected by the recent SCOTUS immunity ruling.
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- The Chicago White Sox lost their 21st straight game, tying an AL record. It’s just the third time in MLB history that a team has lost that many consecutive games.
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August 5:
- President Biden and his national security team met at the White House this afternoon amid heightened expectation of a retaliatory strike against Israel with the possibility of a serious regional escalation. Later there was an apparent rocket attack on a base in Iraq where US service personnel are stationed.
- Global markets tumbled amid a widespread freakout and a heavy sell-off in Japan – the Nikkei’s biggest single-day drop in its history – on top of a disappointing US jobs report on Friday and renewed fears of an economic recession as well as the threat of unrest in the Middle East.
Josh Lipsky writes for The Atlantic Council that “What’s especially hard for markets is to navigate a geopolitical crisis intertwined with bad economic news. Individually, either one can be mitigated and hedged against. But together, the two developing at the same time create a haze that can make each situation appear more threatening than it actually is. How then do we find solid ground? Focus on the data.“
- Talking of stormy weather, Hurricane Debby made landfall in Florida early this morning as a Category 1 storm and is expected to bring potentially “catastrophic” levels of flooding to the region.
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August 3:
- The Middle East is braced for some form of retaliation from Iran after the recent spate of assassinations. The US has moved additional resources to the region amid ongoing fears that a wider escalation is, yet again, possible, but its leverage over Israel is probably as low as it has been in recent years.
- Unrest and uncertainty continues in Venezuela amid fallout from last week’s disputed election, in which the US recognised Edmundo Gozalez as the winner, over incumbent Nicolas Maduro.
- At a rally in Atlanta tonight, Donald Trump praised Vladimir Putin for the recent prisoner exchange deal – nothing new, of course. Meanwhile the former President’s election interference trial is set to resume on August 16, having been on hold in the wake of the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling.
Trump also decided in his own mind he will debate Kamala Harris after all, but – unsurprisingly – on his own terms. Harris has said she will be sticking to the ABC News debate already set for September 10.
And whatever the hell this is, it’s just another indicator of how genuinely insane this election campaign has become.
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August 2:
Read the remarkable account from Evan’s colleagues at the Wall Street Journal here:
Inside the Secret Negotiations to Free Evan Gershkovich
- The level of complexities behind yesterday’s prisoner exchange is becoming clearer, with stories that general negotiations for a deal – initially involving Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny – had already started before Evan Gershkovich was taken into custody.
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- As Kamala Harris secured enough delegate votes to be the Democratic nominee, according to the DNC, there were details of her latest staggering campaign fundraising totals as she continues to ride the honeymoon of enthusiasm.
The data come ahead of a weekend where the VP will personally vet her potential ticket partners face-to-face.
Harris’s first appearance with her new running mate will be at the Temple University basketball arena in Philadelphia on Tuesday night. After that, the pair will head out on a tour of battleground states:
- Detroit, MI – Aug 7
- Eau Claire, WI – Aug 7
- North Carolina – Aug 8
- Georgia – Aug 9
- Phoenix, AZ – Aug 9
- Las Vegas, NV – Aug 10.
https://twitter.com/brent_peabody/status/1819401022844080600
- The Washington Post reports that days before Donald Trump took office in 2017, the Egyptian government may have given $10 million to his campaign, violating US law – but that an investigation into the payment was apparently squashed by Trump’s Attorney-General Bill Barr in 2019. The statute of limitations on any possible offenses, however, has passed.
- The American Bar Association’s task force report on Defending Democracy is released today, offering an action plan for supporting frontline workers in state and local elections.
“It is crucial that now, as we are seeing growing and unprecedented attacks on our election officials and workers—some permanent employees of state, local or territorial governments, others that are temporary employees, and some who work as volunteers—that SLG and the American Bar Association be seen as supporting them and the rule of law in our electoral process.”
The report comes amid reporting highlighting swing state activity by the GOP, putting previous election deniers in place ahead of November – and likely legal challenges thereafter – as well as new PAC activity by Elon Musk aimed at manipulating voter registration data.
https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1819460044234412492
- The US government sued TikTok, alleging that it failed to stop children under 13 from signing up for the app; and that the tech platform has unlawfully collected their personal data.
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August 1:
A significant US-Russian prisoner swap is under way this morning that could see the release of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and others. The exchange is understood to be taking place in Ankara, Turkey.
Follow live updates here.
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The Democratic Party’s virtual roll call formally begins today to select its Presidential nominee. VP Kamala Harris is running unopposed. The process should be completed by August 5th, by which time she is also expected to have revealed her own pick for running mate.
States of Play 